Comptroller’s Economic Outlook

Updated January 27, 2012

Job growth, sales tax collections – both from business and consumer purchases – as well as automobile sales, signal that the Texas economy has emerged from the recent recession.

Another indicator that the state’s economy has been comparatively healthy was the U.S. Census Bureau report that Texas added more people (421,000) than any other state from 2010 to 2011.  Although Texas has only 8 percent of the nation’s population, the state added nearly 19 percent of the nation’s population growth for the year.

By December 2011, Texas employers replaced all 433,400 jobs shed during the recession as our economy rebounded more quickly than the U.S. as a whole, and continues to add jobs. Nationally, only 30 percent of recession-hit jobs have been recovered.

Texas and the nation returned to economic growth in 2010 and 2011.  In 2011, Texas real gross domestic product grew by 2.4 percent, compared with 1.6 percent GDP growth for the nation.

Jobs

• The U.S. gained 200,000 nonfarm jobs in December 2011 compared to November 2011. The U.S. unemployment rate dropped to 8.5 percent for December 2011, down from 8.7 percent in November 2011.
• Texas total nonfarm employment increased by 20,200 jobs from November to December. Between December 2010 and December 2011, Texas gained 204,500 jobs.
• The Texas unemployment rate dropped to 7.8 percent for December 2011, down from 8.1 percent in November 2011.
• The Texas unemployment rate has been at or below the national rate for 60 consecutive months.

Housing

• Thus far, Texas has weathered the national real estate crunch without significant damage to property values.
• A total of 4,528 building permits for single-family homes were issued in November 2011. In the 12 months ending in November 2011, 61,833 permits were issued, 3 percent fewer than one year ago.
• There were 1,272 multi-family building permits issued in November 2011. During the 12 months ending in November 2011, 28,021 permits were issued, 50 percent more than one year ago.
• In December 2011, sales of existing single-family homes increased by 12 percent from the previous month, to a total of 16,505.  December 2011 home sales were 4 percent higher than in December 2010.
• In Texas, the median price for existing single-family homes decreased by 0.2 percent from December 2010 to December 2011.
• In December 2011, the Texas foreclosure rate was one in every 1,133 mortgages.
• This was substantially better than Nevada’s one in 177, California’s one in 254, Arizona’s one in 357 and Florida’s one in 360.
  

Consumer Confidence Index

• The U.S. consumer confidence index increased by 17 percent from November 2011 to December 2011, rising from 55.2 to 64.5. The confidence index now stands 2 percent higher than one year ago.
• The Texas region’s consumer confidence index decreased 22 percent from November 2011 to December 2011, falling from 91.0 to 70.8 and is now down 13 percent from its level one year ago.

Oil and Natural Gas

• Oil and natural gas production tax collections in the first four months of fiscal 2012 were 64 percent higher than during the same period in 2011.
• After reaching a 2008 summer high closing price of $145.29 and falling to a low of $33.98 during February 2009, crude oil futures reached a settle price of $99.70 on January 26, 2012.
• Natural gas futures prices have followed a similar path reaching a summer 2008 high of $13.58 and then falling to a low of $2.51. The price closed at $2.61 on January 26, 2012.

Taxes

• Texas sales tax receipts for December 2011 were 9.5 percent higher than for December 2010.
• Fiscal 2011 state sales tax receipts were up 9.4 percent from fiscal 2010, after posting declines of 6.6 percent in 2010 and 2.7 percent in 2009.
• Sales tax collections have increased for 20 consecutive months, boosted by strong business spending in the oil/natural gas and manufacturing sectors, and to a lesser extent by retail sales activity.
• Texas motor vehicle sales tax collections for December 2011 were 15.4 percent higher than those for December 2010.
• The nationwide average core transaction price for a new car or truck during the first 15 days of January 2012 rose 3.8 percent to $30,184 from the first 15 days of January 2011.
• For the first 15 days of January 2012, total national new auto sales were 457,562 units, up 13.3 percent compared to first 15 days of January 2011.
• Nationally, leases accounted for 28.3  percent of all new vehicle sales for the first 15 days of January 2012, an increase of 18.9 percent from the first 15 days of January 2011.

Stimulus Package

• In Texas, an estimated $18 billion in federal stimulus money is flowing to state and local governments. The Comptroller’s office is tracking the $14.3 billion that comes through the state Treasury. The Comptroller’s analysis is ongoing. For the latest information, visit our ARRA Web site, A Texas Eye on the Dollars.